Will This Summer Be Hotter Than Normal? Here’s The Forecast For Minnesota + Wisconsin

After the abnormally warm and generally snow-free winter Minnesota and Wisconsin saw, you may be wondering what may be ahead for the next season.

Besides a couple of brief cold snaps and of bursts of snow over the winter, including the biggest storm of the season that left between 1-2 feet of snow across parts of the region, it was a mild winter. Did weather causing early ice-out on Minnesota lakes and golf courses allowing players through the winter set the tone for the traditionally warmer weather months too?

The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center released its seasonal outlook for the summer months, giving a glimpse into what they think this summer's overall weather will bring.

Overall, their outlook suggests good odds for a warmer-than-average summer across the country. What about our part of the country? Here's a look.

CPC Summer 2024 temperature outlook for Minnesota & Wisconsin

These outlooks give a general overview of the likelihood of above-average, average, or below-average temperatures. It is possible to see variations from the overall forecast as things actually unfold. That said, this summer's outlook does look like the odds are in favor of a warmer-than-normal summer for much of the region.

As you can see in the map above for May, June, and July, the eastern two-thirds of Minnesota and the northwestern third of Wisconsin have a 33-40% chance of warmer than normal temperatures. The rest of Wisconsin has greater odds of warmer temperatures, with a 40-50% chance.

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Looking at the longer-range forecast, which includes August, most of Minnesota and all of Wisconsin see a 33-40% chance of warmer-than-average temperatures.

What about rain? Will this summer be wetter or dryer than normal?

Precipitation outlook for Minnesota & Wisconsin this summer

Recent summers have been on the dryer side in our region. This summer's outlook suggests equal chances of average, below-average, or above-average precipitation chances across much of the region.

The only exception is Western Minnesota into the extended summer outlook, which looks at June, July, and August. That part of the state does see slightly increased odds of a dryer-than-normal end to the summer.