How Will The Record Warm Winter Impact Summer In Central Minnesota?

The weather we’ve had the last few days has been glorious. Temperatures in the 60’s make a lot of people wish spring would just go ahead and begin. But we’ve still got some cooler days ahead before the warmer weather trend sets in for a few months at least. 

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To say it was a disappointing winter season for those who love being out in the cold weather for their winter hobbies is an understatement. I wanted to understand what happened this winter better and what effect it could have on our Spring and Summer.  

I reached out to the State Climatology Office and chatted with Pete Boulay and got his insight on these topics.  

First, I wanted to know why winter was so mild? 

“We had a couple of things going on. We had overall climate change, which has been happening for quite a while now, and then we had a very strong El Niño. The rule of thumb is the stronger El Niño, the more effect it can have on our wintertime weather” Pete says. “Put them both together and with Luck or Bad Luck if you’re a snow lover, we didn’t get any good storms up here this year.” Those were the combining factors for a record warm winter. 

I followed up asking Pete about Climate Change, I have heard the term for years, but I don’t really understand it. He explains “Over time, Carbon Dioxide has been increasing in the atmosphere. It’s a greenhouse gas, it locks in more warmth.” Pete says generally with Climate Change, the greater north you go, the greater the factor will be, which is the case in Minnesota.  

Overnight temperatures are dramatically affected according to Pete with Climate Change. “Overnight minimum temperatures are warmer. I went to school in St. Cloud, I remember minus forty twice, it’s been a long time since we’re had minus forty, it’s even hard to get to minus thirty.” 

So, what does the mild winter mean for Summer? I’ve heard a couple of “wives' tales” thrown around from some folks I’ve met around here saying that the mild winter means one thing or another. I was curious about what science said about this topic.  

“Basically, anything could happen this summer. We’re transitioning from a strong El Niño to potentially La Niña winter coming for ‘24-’25. We’re likely going to be a neutral phase for the summer” Pete says.  

The data reviewed for after stronger El Niño periods is not consistent according to Pete. “We’ve had some stormy ones, and we had a pretty good drought in one, you really can’t hang your hat on anyone” he adds. 

Pete says that looking at the Climate Prediction Center’s Outlook for the Summer for the entire country, except for Western Minnesota, and North and South Dakota, it is going to be warmer than normal. Pete says that for those specific areas, the weather patterns look like a “three-sided coin”, it could be above normal, below normal or average. “Anything can happen.” 

I grew up in North Carolina, we knew when certain things happened in the winter, that would affect how bad the bugs would be in the summer. I asked Pete if there was anything he could connect for us on that here in Minnesota? 

“We’re a month ahead of everything, the ice is going out a month ahead of time, things are beginning to grow a little bit earlier than they normally would. There's no snow on the ground, there’s no frost on the ground, the soil temperature is warming up, so everything will be advanced, and this would include bugs.” 

Pete says he can’t say for sure if bugs will be worse than normal this year, but we should look for them to be earlier. The number of mosquitoes depends on the amount of rain we get, which again could be a lot or a little, there’s no way to know right now. 

Pete adds we are in a drought right now. “The entire state is in some level of drought right now, it’s kind of an interesting pattern. We have the Mississippi which would normally be going up this time of year with snow melt going into it, it’s now holding level or beginning to fall.” 

Pete added that rain would be welcomed, and it’s likely the drought conditions will get worse before they get better. He reminds us that it’s hard to say what to expect this year.  

So, it appears that Mother Nature intends to keep us on our toes this summer. At least we know that now and have some time to try and plan for whatever she decides to throw our way.